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We’re 14 days until the 2018 midterm elections and 742 days until the 2020 elections.
ORLANDO — Sen. Bill NelsonClarence (Bill) William NelsonNASA, SpaceX and the private-public partnership that caused the flight of the Crew Dragon Lobbying world The most expensive congressional races of the last decade MORE (D-Fla.) is getting a boost from a prominent ally: former Vice President Joe BidenJoe BidenHillicon Valley: Biden calls on Facebook to change political speech rules | Dems demand hearings after Georgia election chaos | Microsoft stops selling facial recognition tech to police Trump finalizing executive order calling on police to use ‘force with compassion’ The Hill’s Campaign Report: Biden campaign goes on offensive against Facebook MORE.
Biden appeared alongside Nelson and Andrew Gillum, the Democratic nominee for Florida governor, in Tampa and Jacksonville on Monday, to help the candidates in their already-high-profile races.
For Nelson, Biden’s appearance comes at a particularly crucial time in his reelection bid against Florida’s Republican Gov. Rick Scott. Most public polls suggest a tight race, and it’s no secret that Scott is ready and willing to pump millions of dollars of his personal fortune into his campaign (which he already has).
The governor has indefinitely suspended his appearances on the campaign trail as he tends to the recovery efforts in the wake of Hurricane Michael, which rammed into the Florida Panhandle earlier this month. In the days and weeks since, Scott has taken to the airwaves to talk about his administration’s handling of the storm. Simply put, Nelson can’t compete with that earned media. That’s where Biden comes in.
“I haven’t met anyone, in all my years, with more character, courage and decency than Bill Nelson,” Biden said in Tampa at the Monday rally.
Biden continued his tour with Nelson on Tuesday, stumping for the senator in downtown Orlando. And while Nelson could get a bump from the former vice president’s appearance, it comes amid speculation that Biden could mount a 2020 bid for the White House. Florida is a key presidential primary state.
Biden has also paid visits in recent weeks to other crucial primary states, like Nevada and South Carolina, suggesting that he may be testing the waters of a presidential run.
Biden has been active on the campaign trail to help deliver majorities for the Democrats. He’s hoping he can leverage his popularity and ties to working-class Americans to help Democratic candidates be successful this cycle–and ultimately test if he’s still a viable party leader who could take on President TrumpDonald John TrumpSenate advances public lands bill in late-night vote Warren, Democrats urge Trump to back down from veto threat over changing Confederate-named bases Esper orders ‘After Action Review’ of National Guard’s role in protests MORE.
Biden has already held rallies for Rep. Jacky RosenJacklyn (Jacky) Sheryl RosenThe Hill’s Coronavirus Report: Mnuchin sees ‘strong likelihood’ of another relief package; Warner says some businesses ‘may not come back’ at The Hill’s Advancing America’s Economy summit The Hill’s Coronavirus Report: CDC Director Redfield responds to Navarro criticism; Mnuchin and Powell brief Senate panel Hillicon Valley: Experts raise security concerns about online voting | Musk finds supporter in Trump | Officials warn that Chinese hackers targeting COVID-19 research groups MORE (D-Nev.), who’s running against Sen. Dean HellerDean Arthur HellerOn The Trail: Democrats plan to hammer Trump on Social Security, Medicare Lobbying World Democrats spend big to put Senate in play MORE (R-Nev.); Sen. Joe DonnellyJoseph (Joe) Simon DonnellyEx-Sen. Joe Donnelly endorses Biden Lobbying world 70 former senators propose bipartisan caucus for incumbents MORE (D-Ind.); veteran Amy McGrath, who’s running against Rep. Andy BarrAndy BarrKentucky Senate candidate: McConnell ‘couldn’t care less if we die’ House GOP to launch China probes beyond COVID-19 Put entrepreneurs, workers and flexibility in next stimulus package MORE (R-Ky.); and Democrat Mikie Sherrill, another veteran running to in the race to replace retiring Rep. Rodney FrelinghuysenRodney Procter FrelinghuysenBottom line Republican lobbying firms riding high despite uncertainty of 2020 race Ex-Rep. Frelinghuysen joins law and lobby firm MORE (R-N.J.). Biden will also head to New York on Friday to boost Democrat Antonio Delgado in his bid to unseat Rep. John FasoJohn James FasoThe most expensive congressional races of the last decade The 31 Trump districts that will determine the next House majority GOP House super PAC targets two freshman Dems with new ads MORE (R-N.Y.).
Make sure to follow The Hill’s Max Greenwood as he travels around Florida this week for in-depth coverage of the Sunshine State’s hotly contested gubernatorial, Senate and House races.
Trump called Sen. Ted CruzRafael (Ted) Edward CruzSenate advances public lands bill in late-night vote The Hill’s Morning Report – Trump’s public standing sags after Floyd protests GOP senators introduce resolution opposing calls to defund the police MORE (R-Texas) a “really good friend of mine” on Monday when he opened a massive Houston campaign rally for Republicans. The president recounted parts of their rocky relationship, but noted that they have put their differences aside. Trump traveled to Texas as Cruz seeks to fend off a challenge from Rep. Beto O’RourkeBeto O’RourkeBiden will help close out Texas Democrats’ virtual convention: report O’Rourke on Texas reopening: ‘Dangerous, dumb and weak’ Parties gear up for battle over Texas state House MORE (D) in one of the country’s most closely watched Senate races. Still, recent polls show Cruz comfortably leading.
Donald Trump Jr.Don John TrumpTrump Jr. calls elderly supporter who was assaulted Trump Jr. hits Howard Stern for going ‘establishment,’ ‘acting like Hillary’ Trump Jr., GOP senator lash out at Facebook for taking down protest pages on stay-at-home orders MORE visited Indiana on Monday rallying in support of Republican Senate candidate Mike Braun, who’s competing in a top-tier race against Sen. Joe Donnelly (D). He also came to boost Greg Pence, a Republican congressional candidate and Pence’s older brother.
Democrats have softened their tone on the potential of a “blue wave” two weeks before Election Day. Democratic National Committee chairman Tom PerezThomas Edward PerezClinton’s top five vice presidential picks Government social programs: Triumph of hope over evidence Labor’s ‘wasteful spending and mismanagement” at Workers’ Comp MORE said on CNN that he doesn’t use the term “blue wave” and has always thought that 2018 would be close. Sen. Bernie SandersBernie SandersThe Hill’s 12:30 Report: Milley apologizes for church photo-op Harris grapples with defund the police movement amid veep talk Biden courts younger voters — who have been a weakness MORE (I-Vt.) told “Rising” Hill.TV co-host Krystal Ball “I don’t believe it” when asked about the possibility of a blue wave. Some say this rhetoric may be meant to encourage voters to turn up at the polls; others point to concerns over voter purges in key states like Georgia. But some Democrats insist that winning 23 seats to take back the House does in fact amount to a “wave.”
With two weeks to go before Election Day, Cook Political Report has shifted eight House races toward Democrats and two toward Republicans in the heated battle for the House. The election forecaster is giving Democrats the edge in these races following the party’s fundraising success in the third quarter of the year. Some of the biggest moves include shifts towards Democrats in three open-seat races in Florida’s 6th, 15th and 27th districts.
Rep. Keith EllisonKeith Maurice EllisonThe Hill’s Coronavirus Report: Kansas City Mayor Quinton Lucas says country needs to rethink what ‘policing’ means; US cases surpass 2 million with no end to pandemic in sight Officer charged in Floyd’s death considered guilty plea before talks fell apart: report Minnesota AG Keith Ellison says racism is a bigger problem than police behavior; 21 states see uptick in cases amid efforts to reopen MORE (D-Minn.), the Democratic candidate for Minnesota attorney general, is trailing Republican Doug Wardlow by 7 points in a new Star Tribune/MPR News Minnesota Poll. Wardlow leads 43 to 36 percent, while 17 percent say they’re still undecided. Ellison is currently battling allegations that he physically abused an ex-girlfriend in 2016, which he has denied.
In some of the nation’s tightest House races, Democrats are leading Republicans by 3 points. According to a Washington Post/Schar School poll, 50 percent of likely voters collectively support their Democratic candidates and 47 support the Republican candidate in 69 competitive districts.
The Indiana Senate race is in a dead heat, according to a Indianapolis Business Journal Poll released on Monday. Among likely voters, 41 percent back Donnelly, while 40 percent are behind Braun. Donnelly’s lead is well within the poll’s 4.6-point margin of error.
In Montana, Sen. Jon TesterJonathan (Jon) TesterSenate confirms Trump’s watchdog for coronavirus funds Montana barrels toward blockbuster Senate fight The 10 Senate seats most likely to flip MORE (D-Mont.) leads Republican state auditor Matt Rosendale by three points, 46 to 43 percent, in the Montana State University/Montana Television Network poll.
Rep. Karen HandelKaren Christine HandelJon Ossoff to challenge David Perdue after winning Georgia Democratic primary The Hill’s Campaign Report: Bad polling data is piling up for Trump Ossoff within reach of Democratic Senate nomination in Georgia, but counting continues MORE (R-Ga.), who won a hyper-competitive special election in 2017, leads her Democratic opponent, Lucy McBath, by 4 points, according to a new JMC Analytics poll. Handel leads McBath, who’s a gun control activist, 49 to 45 percent, with 6 percent undecided.
And in governor’s races, Gillum holds a 6-point lead over DeSantis in Florida’s gubernatorial race, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released Tuesday. Gillum, the mayor of Tallahassee, leads with support from 52 percent of likely voters, compared to 46 percent backing DeSantis, a former U.S. congressman.
Trump‘s campaign said Tuesday that it will spend a total of $20 million on the 2018 midterms. That includes: $11 million on more than 30 rallies across the country, $6 million on a TV and digital ad buy that’ll run starting on Monday and a $3 million transfer to the Republican National Committee (RNC). The campaign already donated a total of $214,000 in August to 107 Republican candidates in top Senate and House races.
Hollywood Democrats are funneling money into the midterms with the hopes of flipping the House, according to FEC data analyzed by The Hill’s In The Know columnist Judy Kurtz. Some big names include Meryl Streep, Steven Spielberg, Alec Baldwin and Paul Rudd. For example Streep and actor Jack Black each donated $10,000 in September to a joint fundraising committee that benefits Sen. Claire McCaskillClaire Conner McCaskillMissouri county issues travel advisory for Lake of the Ozarks after Memorial Day parties Senate faces protracted floor fight over judges amid pandemic safety concerns Amash on eyeing presidential bid: ‘Millions of Americans’ want someone other than Trump, Biden MORE‘s (D-Mo.) campaign, according to FEC data. McCaskill faces a tough challenge against Missouri Attorney General Josh Hawley.
Trump is hosting a Washington, D.C. fundraiser on Thursday for GOP House candidates Jay Webber of New Jersey, Ross Spano of Florida and Carol Miller of West Virginia, Politico reported.
What we’re watching for
—Hillary ClintonHillary Diane Rodham ClintonWhite House accuses Biden of pushing ‘conspiracy theories’ with Trump election claim Biden courts younger voters — who have been a weakness Trayvon Martin’s mother Sybrina Fulton qualifies to run for county commissioner in Florida MORE will attend fundraisers for Gillum in south Florida on Oct. 23
–Former President Obama will campaign in Wisconsin for gubernatorial candidate Tony Evers, Sen. Tammy BaldwinTammy Suzanne BaldwinBiden launches program to turn out LGBTQ vote We need a ‘9-1-1’ for mental health — we need ‘9-8-8’ Democrats introduce bill to rein in Trump’s power under Insurrection Act MORE (D-Wis.) and other Democrats running down ballot on Oct. 26.
–Oct. 24 in Mosinee, Wis.
–Oct. 26 in Charlotte, N.C.
–Oct. 27 in Murphysboro, Ill.
Debates: (All ET)
–Oct. 23: Georgia gubernatorial debate at 7 p.m.
–Oct. 24: Florida gubernatorial debate at 7 p.m.; New Jersey Senate debate at 8 p.m.
–Oct. 26: North Dakota Senate debate at 8 p.m.
Coming to a TV near you
New ads are up on the air in Nevada’s marquee Senate race, according to The Nevada Independent. Sen. Dean Heller (R-Nev.) is out with two new, positive Spanish-language ads that encourage people to “vote for results” and also touting the GOP’s tax law. The ads come as both parties are heavily targeting the state’s large Hispanic voter bloc.
Meanwhile, Rep. Jacky Rosen (D) released a response ad to Heller’s attacks about her experience. She highlighted times when she “worked across party lines,” noting that Trump signed her VA legislation into law and that she broke ranks with House Minority Leader Nancy PelosiNancy PelosiTrump on collision course with Congress over bases with Confederate names Black lawmakers unveil bill to remove Confederate statues from Capitol Pelosi: Georgia primary ‘disgrace’ could preview an election debacle in November MORE (D-Calif.) and voted to permanently extend the individual tax cuts in the GOP tax law.
House Majority PAC, the major Democratic super PAC for the House, is looking to launch a huge ad blitz across 16 competitive House districts in the final two weeks of the midterms. Here’s a list of the districts where ads will be airing: Ariz.-01, Calif.-10, Colo.-06, Fla.-07, Fla.-18, Ill.-12, Ill.-13, Minn.-02, Minn.-08, N.C.-13, N.Y.-19, N.Y.-24, Nev.-03, Texas-32, Wash.-08 and Wis.-06. Many of those ads specifically focus on health care, cuts to Social Security and the GOP’s tax law.
Race for the White House
During her time in Iowa, Sen. Kamala HarrisKamala Devi HarrisRand Paul introduces bill to end no-knock warrants The Hill’s Campaign Report: Biden campaign goes on offensive against Facebook McEnany says Juneteenth is a very ‘meaningful’ day to Trump MORE (D-Calif.), who’s considered to be a 2020 White House hopeful, insisted that Iowa Democrats take advantage of early voting, The Hill’s Naomi Jagoda reports from Ankeny, Iowa. Harris is making her first campaign visit in 10 years to Iowa, which holds the first-in-the-nation presidential caucuses. She’s traveled to the state to boost Democrat Cindy Axne, who is challenging GOP Rep. David YoungDavid Edmund YoungFormer Rep. David Young wins GOP primary in bid for old House seat Trump lends support to swing district Republicans Former ‘Apprentice’ contestant ranks Trump next to Mother Teresa on women’s issues MORE in Iowa’s 3rd District.
Odds and ends
Georgia Democrat Stacey Abrams and Republican Brian Kemp are set to face off on Tuesday night in the first debate of their closely watched gubernatorial race. Here are five things to watch in tonight’s debate.
A racist robocall that targets Democratic gubernatorial candidate Andrew Gillum is dialing up Florida voters, according to NBC News.
Texas Sen. Ted Cruz (R) joked at a campaign rally that his opponent in the state’s Senate race, Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D), could join 2016 Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton in a “double-occupancy” prison cell.
Facebook on Tuesday introduced a new “ad archive report” for political advertisements and revealed that it is the top spender for such ads on its own platform. The company has spent $12 million to tout election security reforms and to urge voters to vote.
The Hill’s Election Countdown was written by Lisa Cohen, Max Greenwood, Kenna Sturgeon and James Wellemeyer.